Machinery Forecast Roller Coaster

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Machinery Manufacturing Forecast Roller Coaster Coming

Posted By : | Date : April 9, 2021

High-level analytical models from Armada and MN&A show that the outlook for machinery manufacturing over the next 18 months is likely to go on a roller coaster ride. The latest forecast released in the Armada Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) shows machinery manufacturing growth of 7.91% in 2021. This comes after a 1.2% contraction rate in 2020.

The outlook shows a sharp recovery period lasting through September of this year before retreating through September of next year (note the chart below showing the forecast).

Machinery Manufacturing Outlook

Machinery manufacturing is also impacted by the global microchip shortage issue. Given heavy demand for grains and agricultural products, farm equipment will likely see some near-term surges before potentially higher interest rates and tax implications start to filter into the view for 2022.

The data models used in creating this forecast use 18-20 different economic variables and the models were trained over the past 20 years of data. The changes that the models are picking up in the last quarter of 2021 are interesting and are all data-driven.

Several of the industry models included in the ASIS report were showing similar softening outlooks in the latter part of 2021 and into 2022. Aerospace, electrical equipment/appliances, machinery, and primary metals were all showing this “flattening of the curve” between Q4 of 2021 and June of 2022. For more detail on the forecast, subscribe for a free trial to ASIS.

The next update of the ASIS models will be released in the last week of April.

Armada Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS)

The Armada Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) is a continuous, monthly updated forecast covering 8 sectors in the durable manufacturing sector. It includes 18-month continuous forecasts for automotive, aerospace, computers and electronics, electrical equipment and appliances, fabricated metal products, machinery, and primary metals. It also covers supply chain issues, helping executives see well into the future so that they can make operational adjustments well in advance of cyclical changes in the marketplace. Manufacturers, financial analysts, supply chain managers, sales executives, and a wide variety of occupations across many industries subscribe to the ASIS.

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