Predictive Intelligence – A Critical Tool For Business Executives
Market conditions and the corporate operating environment is dynamic and constantly changing. Publicly disclosed figures suggest that the Federal Government spends more than $100 billion on intelligence services annually, and the role of intelligence in running the country is absolutely critical. But corporate executives rely no less on intelligence for running their organizations.
Maybe they overtly understand it or not, Executives have their own complex system of gathering intelligence. They access it from big data and business intelligence, research and surveys, human intelligence gathered via listening posts, and external sources of intelligence. It takes a system to fully arm executives to make accurate and visionary decisions.
Armada and MNA have studied the factors that ‘move markets’ apply analytical secrets in predicting performance of a given sector (what we call the target metric). It’s what we want to predict (manufacturing output, retail sales, truck tonnage, etc.). Our models use classic intelligence philosophies (understanding external factors that make an industry, corporation, or customer act) and we use our proprietary approach to create the models that help predict that activity. Each of the models include between 18-22 ‘factors’ (actors and influences that move a given market) and using sophisticated analytical tools, we predict those sectors 18 months out.
Much like the national intelligence community, intelligence estimates change with rapidly changing market conditions. That’s why we call this a continuous situation analysis tool, we update the models monthly as new economic data is released and feel that this is the best way to keep executives out and in front of dynamically changing markets. Many of the executives that we work with need 3-6 weeks to make material changes in how they operate, forecasts updated quarterly or biannually don’t provide enough time for executives to react as conditions change. Hence: The Watch.
